South Africa: Discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, South Africa's discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU) fell 14.79 billion on 2024 (from 6.24 billion to -8.54 billion).

Across the 9 yearly changes before that (2016 to 2024), the average change was +693.73 million and a typical year strayed about 11.78 billion from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.3 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 14.6 billion in 2023 and the biggest yearly fall was 18.6 billion in 2022. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 there is no clear straight-line trend: a straight line explains 19% of the movement over 10 observed years, so the value is moving around more than it is heading anywhere.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

How it compares

In 2025, South Africa had the 85th highest value of the 94 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to South Africa in the 2025 ranking

• Tunisia — 82nd of 94: -1.11 billion
• New Zealand — 83rd of 94: -2.07 billion
• Argentina — 84th of 94: -7.05 billion
• Cameroon — 86th of 94: -11.25 billion
• Mali — 87th of 94: -101.05 billion
• Mauritania — 88th of 94: -155.06 billion

What this measures

Although the SNA ensures there is perfect consistency between the three measures of GDP, this is a conceptual consistency that in general does not emerge naturally from data compilations. This is because of the wide disparity of data sources that must be called on and the fact that any error in any source will lead to a difference between at least two of the GDP measures. In practice it is inevitable that many such data errors will exist and will become apparent in exercises such as the balancing of supply and use tables. This indicator is expressed in constant prices, meaning the underlying series have been adjusted to account for price changes over time. The reference year for this adjustment varies by country.

All 11 values

Discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU) in nearby economies

• Angola — 16.86 trillion (2025)
• Benin — 0 (2025)
• Burkina Faso — 35.61 billion (2025)
• Cabo Verde — 2.09 billion (2025)
• Cameroon — -11.25 billion (2025)
• Central African Republic — 382,600 (2025)
• Comoros — 1.89 billion (2025)
• Congo, Dem. Rep. — -3.6 trillion (2025)
• Congo, Rep. — -550.36 billion (2025)

More economic policy & debt data for South Africa

• Trade in services (% of GDP) — 9.32% (2025)
• Communications, computer, etc. (% of service imports, BoP) — 44.9% (2025)
• Primary income payments (BoP, current US$) — US$20.32 billion (2025)
• Imports of goods and services (current US$, BoP) — US$126.24 billion (2025)
• Insurance and financial services (% of service imports, BoP) — 5.58% (2025)
• Goods imports (current US$, BoP) — US$104.47 billion (2025)
• Service imports (current US$, BoP) — US$21.77 billion (2025)
• Charges for the use of intellectual property, payments (BoP, current US$) — US$1.74 billion (2025)
• Imports of goods, services and primary income (current US$, BoP)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is South Africa's discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU)?

-8.54 billion in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2015?

It is down 6.19 million% from -138,100 in 2015. The highest value was 15.31 billion in 2020 and the lowest -16.43 billion in 2022.

How does South Africa rank?

85th highest of 94 economies with data for 2025.

Is the latest change in discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU) unusual for South Africa?

In 2025, South Africa's discrepancy in expenditure estimate of GDP (constant LCU) fell 14.79 billion on 2024 (from 6.24 billion to -8.54 billion). Across the 9 yearly changes before that (2016 to 2024), the average change was +693.73 million and a typical year strayed about 11.78 billion from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.3 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator NY.GDP.DISC.KN, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Country official statistics, National Statistical Organizations and/or Central Banks; National Accounts data files, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); Staff estimates, World Bank (WB) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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