Early-demographic dividend: Forcibly displaced people

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, Early-demographic dividend's forcibly displaced people fell 5.9% on 2024 (from 44.29 million to 41.69 million).

Across the 14 yearly changes before that (2011 to 2024), the average change was +8% and a typical year strayed about 8.6% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.6 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 22.2% in 2014 and the biggest yearly fall was 10.9% in 2016. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is upward, about 1.99 million a year. A straight line explains 93% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

How it compares

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What this measures

Forcibly displaced people are represented by the sum of (1) refugees (and people in a refugee-like situation) under the mandate of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), (2) refugees under the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), (3) asylum-seekers, (4) other people in need of international protection, and (5) internally displaced people (IDPs). Situations in which people are reported in more than one of these categories are accounted for, to the extent possible.

Limitations: Aggregating data across diverse categories introduces challenges in maintaining comparability and consistency. Variations in data collection methods and definitions—such as differing criteria for refugee or IDP status—can complicate efforts to standardize figures across countries and regions. Additionally, dynamic changes in displacement, including secondary movements or status transitions (e.g., from asylum-seeker to refugee), may lead to double counting or data gaps. The diverse sources of data, ranging from administrative records to field surveys, further underscore the importance of contextualizing and cautiously interpreting the aggregate figures.

All 16 values

Forcibly displaced people in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 4.38 million (2025)
• Algeria — 184,265 (2025)
• Bahrain — 362 (2025)
• Djibouti — 35,040 (2025)
• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 1.1 million (2025)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 1.65 million (2025)
• Iraq — 1.34 million (2025)
• Israel — 61,956 (2025)
• Jordan — 2.84 million (2025)
• Kuwait — 997 (2025)
• Lebanon — 835,059 (2025)
• Libya

More social protection & labor data for Early-demographic dividend

• Net migration — -3.03 million (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of asylum — 8.69 million (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin — 8.41 million (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, female (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 24.74% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, male (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 47.96% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, total (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 36.69% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate)

Reading data like this

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Questions people ask

What is Early-demographic dividend's forcibly displaced people?

41.69 million in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2010?

It is up 164.4% from 15.77 million in 2010 (6.7% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 44.29 million in 2024 and the lowest 15.77 million in 2010.

Is the latest change in forcibly displaced people unusual for Early-demographic dividend?

In 2025, Early-demographic dividend's forcibly displaced people fell 5.9% on 2024 (from 44.29 million to 41.69 million). Across the 14 yearly changes before that (2011 to 2024), the average change was +8% and a typical year strayed about 8.6% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.6 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

Where does this data come from?

The World Bank's World Development Indicators, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Refugee Population Statistics Database, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), uri: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SM.POP.FDIP, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Refugee Population Statistics Database, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), uri: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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