United States: Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2021, United States' risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) rose 0.04 percentage points on 2020 (from 3.16% to 3.21%).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1991 to 2020), the average change was +0.02 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 0.23 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.1 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 1.93 percentage points in 1974 and the biggest yearly fall was 1.96 percentage points in 1983. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2012 to 2021 there is no clear straight-line trend: a straight line explains 2% of the movement over 10 observed years, so the value is moving around more than it is heading anywhere.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

Closest to United States in the 2021 ranking

• Solomon Islands — 1st of 3: 4.69%
• Pakistan — 3rd of 3: 1.08%

What this measures

Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the "risk free" treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.

Limitations: Countries use a variety of reporting formats, sample designs, interest compounding formulas, averaging methods, and data presentations for indices and other data series on interest rates. The IMF's Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual does not provide guidelines beyond the general recommendation that such data should reflect market prices and effective (rather than nominal) interest rates and should be representative of the financial assets and markets to be covered. For more information, please see http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/mfs/manual/index.htm.

All 62 values

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in nearby economies

• Canada — 2.18% (2017)

More financial sector data for United States

• Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) — 44.51% (2025)
• Net domestic credit (current LCU) — 32.37 trillion (2025)
• Net foreign assets (current LCU) — 1.26 trillion (2025)
• Monetary sector credit to private sector (% of GDP) — 44.51% (2025)
• Broad money (current LCU) — 30.68 trillion (2025)
• Broad money (% of GDP) — 99.72% (2025)
• Broad money to total reserves ratio — 22.15 (2025)
• Claims on central government, etc. (% of GDP) — 54.19% (2025)
• Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP) — 262.3% (2025)

Reading data like this

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Questions people ask

What is United States's risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %)?

3.21% in 2021, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1960?

It is up 1.33 percentage points from 1.87% in 1960. The highest value was 4.79% in 1981 and the lowest 0.59% in 1965.

Is the latest change in risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) unusual for United States?

In 2021, United States' risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) rose 0.04 percentage points on 2020 (from 3.16% to 3.21%). Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1991 to 2020), the average change was +0.02 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 0.23 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.1 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator FR.INR.RISK, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: International Financial Statistics database, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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