Malawi: Total greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF (Mt CO2e)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2023, Malawi's total greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF (Mt CO2e) fell 1.6% on 2022 (from 18.08 to 17.79).

Across the 22 yearly changes before that (2001 to 2022), the average change was +4.1% and a typical year strayed about 4.1% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.4 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 14.8% in 2011 and the biggest yearly fall was 2.3% in 2013. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2014 to 2023 the straight-line trend is upward, about 0.67 a year. A straight line explains 92% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 20.41 for 2026. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2021 to 2023 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.56, against 0.95 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2023, Malawi had the 104th highest value of the 176 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Malawi in the 2023 ranking

• Tajikistan — 101st of 176: 20.81
• Sweden — 102nd of 176: 18.51
• Senegal — 103rd of 176: 18.08
• Solomon Islands — 105th of 176: 16.82
• Estonia — 106th of 176: 16.77
• Sri Lanka — 107th of 176: 16.7

What this measures

A measure of annual emissions of the six greenhouse gases (GHG) covered by the Kyoto Protocol (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)) from the energy, industry, waste, agriculture, and land use, land use changes, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, standardized to carbon dioxide equivalent values. The measure is standardized to carbon dioxide equivalent values using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) factors of IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5).

Limitations: Global GHG emissions are currently not directly measurable, but approaches for their estimation exist, and numerous sources exist to supply data for this indicator. Reputable scientific organizations produce these data for use for research, policy analysis, climate negotiations, and broader public communications. The estimated accuracy from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes are quite high, as quantities of fossil fuels and other emissive materials (such as cement and steel) produced are well known. For these sectors, emissions estimates are roughly accurate to within 10% when aggregated to the global level and between 4% and 35% at the country level (Crippa et al., 2023).

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a sum.

All 24 values

Total greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF (Mt CO2e) in nearby economies

• Angola — 138.69 (2023)
• Benin — 13.39 (2023)
• Botswana — 9.79 (2023)
• Burkina Faso — 74.73 (2023)
• Burundi — -7.23 (2023)
• Cabo Verde — 0.82 (2023)
• Cameroon — -36.24 (2023)
• Central African Republic — -147.59 (2023)
• Chad — 91.73 (2023)

More environment data for Malawi

• Population in largest city — 1.39 million (2025)
• Population in the largest city (% of urban population) — 35.64% (2025)
• Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million — 1.39 million (2025)
• Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total population) — 6.27% (2025)
• Rural population — 18.31 million (2025)
• Rural population (% of total population) — 82.41% (2025)
• Urban population — 3.91 million (2025)
• Urban population (% of total population) — 17.6% (2025)
• Aquaculture production (metric tons) — 4,800 (2024)
• Capture fisheries production (metric tons)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Malawi's total greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF (Mt CO2e)?

17.79 in 2023, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2000?

It is up 134.74% from 7.58 in 2000 (3.78% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 18.12 in 2021 and the lowest 7.53 in 2001.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator EN.GHG.ALL.LU.MT.CE.AR5, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) Community GHG Database, , uri: https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg2024, publisher: JRC European Commission, date published: 2024; European Forest Observatory, uri: https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg2024, publisher: European Co… Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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