Lesotho: Forcibly displaced people

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, Lesotho's forcibly displaced people rose 11.5% on 2024 (from 610 to 680).

Across the 13 yearly changes before that (2012 to 2024), the average change was +31.7% and a typical year strayed about 50% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.4 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 140.2% in 2019 and the biggest yearly fall was 27.9% in 2015. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is upward, about 80.76 a year. A straight line explains 92% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 940.97 for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 75.99, against 118.33 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2025, Lesotho had the 150th highest value of the 169 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Lesotho in the 2025 ranking

• Botswana — 147th of 169: 868
• China — 148th of 169: 712
• Oman — 149th of 169: 703
• Bahrain — 151st of 169: 362
• Qatar — 152nd of 169: 348
• Gabon — 153rd of 169: 252

What this measures

Forcibly displaced people are represented by the sum of (1) refugees (and people in a refugee-like situation) under the mandate of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), (2) refugees under the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), (3) asylum-seekers, (4) other people in need of international protection, and (5) internally displaced people (IDPs). Situations in which people are reported in more than one of these categories are accounted for, to the extent possible.

Limitations: Aggregating data across diverse categories introduces challenges in maintaining comparability and consistency. Variations in data collection methods and definitions—such as differing criteria for refugee or IDP status—can complicate efforts to standardize figures across countries and regions. Additionally, dynamic changes in displacement, including secondary movements or status transitions (e.g., from asylum-seeker to refugee), may lead to double counting or data gaps. The diverse sources of data, ranging from administrative records to field surveys, further underscore the importance of contextualizing and cautiously interpreting the aggregate figures.

All 15 values

Forcibly displaced people in nearby economies

• Angola — 55,657 (2025)
• Benin — 54,921 (2025)
• Botswana — 868 (2025)
• Burkina Faso — 2.11 million (2025)
• Burundi — 119,066 (2025)
• Cabo Verde — 0 (2025)
• Cameroon — 1.38 million (2025)
• Central African Republic — 490,761 (2025)
• Chad — 2.1 million (2025)
• Congo, Dem. Rep. — 4.88 million (2025)
• Congo, Rep. — 70,609 (2025)

More social protection & labor data for Lesotho

• Net migration — -5,192 (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of asylum — 478 (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin — 27 (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, female (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 23.8% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, male (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 45.46% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, total (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 34.63% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate) — 50.49% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Lesotho's forcibly displaced people?

680 in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2011?

It is up 1,689% from 38 in 2011 (22.88% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 682 in 2023 and the lowest 29 in 2013.

How does Lesotho rank?

150th highest of 169 economies with data for 2025.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SM.POP.FDIP, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Refugee Population Statistics Database, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), uri: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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