Guatemala: Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2024, Guatemala's mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) fell 0.7 on 2023 (from 21.2 to 20.5).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was −1.62 and a typical year strayed about 0.67 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.4 standard deviations above that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 20.1 in 1976 and the biggest yearly fall was 29.7 in 1977. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.84 a year. A straight line explains 100% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 17.44 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 1.04, against 1.5 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2024, Guatemala had the 73rd highest value of the 196 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Guatemala in the 2024 ranking

• Iraq — 70th of 196: 21.8
• Algeria — 71st of 196: 21.6
• Palau — 72nd of 196: 21.4
• Solomon Islands — 74th of 196: 20
• Tuvalu — 75th of 196: 19.2
• Trinidad and Tobago — 76th of 196: 18.8

What this measures

Under-five mortality rate is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the specified year.

Limitations: Complete vital registration systems are fairly uncommon in developing countries. Thus estimates must be obtained from sample surveys or derived by applying indirect estimation techniques to registration, census, or survey data. Survey data are subject to recall error, and surveys estimating infant/child deaths require large samples because households in which a birth has occurred during a given year cannot ordinarily be preselected for sampling. Indirect estimates rely on model life tables that may be inappropriate for the population concerned. Extrapolations based on outdated surveys may not be reliable for monitoring changes in health status or for comparative analytical work.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 65 values

Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) in nearby economies

• Antigua and Barbuda — 9.1 (2024)
• Argentina — 9.5 (2024)
• Bahamas, The — 12.4 (2024)
• Barbados — 9.8 (2024)
• Belize — 12.7 (2024)
• Bolivia — 15.7 (2024)
• Brazil — 14.2 (2024)
• British Virgin Islands — 12.4 (2024)
• Chile — 6.8 (2024)
• Colombia — 11.5 (2024)

More health data for Guatemala

• Population ages 00-04, female (% of female population) — 9.66% (2025)
• Population ages 00-04, male (% of male population) — 10.15% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female — 2.85 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female (% of female population) — 30.31% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male — 2.94 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male (% of male population) — 31.75% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, total — 5.8 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) — 31.03% (2025)
• Population ages 05-09, female (% of female population) — 10.34% (2025)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Guatemala's mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)?

20.5 in 2024, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1960?

It is down 90.7% from 220.5 in 1960 (3.64% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 220.5 in 1960 and the lowest 20.5 in 2024.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SH.DYN.MORT, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), uri: www.childmortality.org, publisher: UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, United Nations Population Division; World Health Organization (WHO), uri: www.childmortality.org, note: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estima… Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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