Europe & Central Asia: Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, Europe & Central Asia's vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) fell 0.09 percentage points on 2024 (from 12.96% to 12.87%).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1995 to 2024), the average change was −0.16 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 0.19 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.4 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 0.41 percentage points in 1994 and the biggest yearly fall was 0.53 percentage points in 2002. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.21 percentage points a year. A straight line explains 97% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 12.16% for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.14%, against 0.3% for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

Vulnerable employment is contributing family workers and own-account workers as a percentage of total employment.

Limitations: Data are drawn from labor force surveys and household surveys, supplemented by official estimates and censuses for a small group of countries. Due to differences in definitions and coverage across countries, there are limitations for comparing data across countries and over time even within a country. Estimates of women in employment are not comparable internationally, reflecting that demographic, social, legal, and cultural trends and norms determine whether women's activities are regarded as economic.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 35 values

Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 81.77% (2025)
• Algeria — 25.56% (2025)
• Bahrain — 0.75% (2025)
• Djibouti — 30.29% (2025)
• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 23.94% (2025)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 39.52% (2025)
• Iraq — 27.14% (2025)
• Israel — 7.7% (2025)

More social protection & labor data for Europe & Central Asia

• Net migration — 1.18 million (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of asylum — 11.5 million (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin — 5.79 million (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, female (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 35.9% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, male (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 44.5% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, total (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 40.3% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Europe & Central Asia's vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate)?

12.87% in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1991?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SL.EMP.VULN.ZS, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: estimates based on external database; Staff estimates, World Bank (WB) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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