In SQL, linear regression over the sample table is calculated with the query below. On the sample data it returns 6.42.
Slope = Σ (x − x̄)(y − ȳ) ÷ Σ (x − x̄)²; Intercept = ȳ − slope × x̄
Step by step
- Load daily.csv into a table called daily (day, ad_spend, website_orders, app_orders, avg_basket).
- Run the query and compare with the expected result.
CREATE TABLE daily (
day INTEGER,
ad_spend INTEGER,
website_orders INTEGER,
app_orders INTEGER,
avg_basket INTEGER
);The query
SELECT ROUND(1000 * REGR_SLOPE(website_orders, ad_spend), 3) AS orders_per_1000
FROM daily;Expected result on the sample data: 6.42.
What the result means
The slope here is multiplied by 1,000, so it reads as extra website orders per extra ₹1,000 of daily ad spend. It describes the past association, not what more spend will cause.
Notes for SQL
- Tested on DuckDB. The same functions exist in PostgreSQL. SQLite and MySQL lack most statistical aggregates; compute in Python or load the data into DuckDB, which can query a CSV file directly.
- Statistical aggregates ignore NULL rows. Decide whether a missing day should be NULL (left out) or 0 (counted as a zero day).
Where linear regression misleads
- Regression on observational data is still correlation; it does not prove the spend caused the orders.
- Do not predict far outside the range of x you have. A line fitted between ₹3,000 and ₹7,200 says nothing about ₹20,000.
- Check the residuals: a pattern in them means a straight line is the wrong shape.
The plain-language explanation is on the Linear regression (slope) page.
The data
| day | ad_spend | website_orders |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3,800 | 24 |
| 2 | 3,000 | 27 |
| 3 | 3,900 | 22 |
| 4 | 3,200 | 30 |
| 5 | 4,000 | 28 |
| 6 | 4,100 | 25 |
| 7 | 3,100 | 31 |
| 8 | 3,600 | 29 |
| 9 | 4,100 | 26 |
| 10 | 3,500 | 33 |
| 11 | 4,300 | 30 |
| 12 | 4,500 | 28 |
| 13 | 3,900 | 35 |
| 14 | 3,900 | 32 |
| 15 | 4,300 | 29 |
| 16 | 3,700 | 34 |
| 17 | 7,200 | 61 |
| 18 | 4,800 | 31 |
| 19 | 3,800 | 36 |
| 20 | 4,500 | 33 |
| 21 | 4,500 | 30 |
| 22 | 4,000 | 37 |
| 23 | 4,200 | 35 |
| 24 | 4,800 | 32 |
| 25 | 4,300 | 38 |
| 26 | 5,000 | 36 |
| 27 | 3,900 | 34 |
| 28 | 5,000 | 40 |
| 29 | 5,200 | 37 |
| 30 | 4,700 | 39 |
Same method, other tools
Related methods
Learn more about SQL
- Python and SQL for data analysis, side by side — 3 min read
- Data analysis methods and techniques, and when to use each — 3 min read
About the data on this page
The figures come from a small made-up dataset, printed above in full so you can check every number by hand. Download it as daily.csv. The results are computed from those rows when the page is built, and the Excel formulas, SQL and Python on these pages are run against the same rows before publishing, so the code and the answers agree.
To get these numbers from your own data without writing formulas, try AnalyzeIt: ask in plain words and it shows the working behind every figure.
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