Trade · World
Yearly data from 2005 to 2024, from the World Bank.
World's export volume index (2015 = 100) was 117.6 in 2024, the latest year in the World Bank's World Development Indicators. That is up 19.39% from 98.5 in 2014 (1.79% a year on average, compounded).
| Value | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest | 117.6 | 2024 |
| Five years earlier | 108.7 | 2019 |
| Ten years earlier | 98.5 | 2014 |
| Highest | 117.6 | 2024 |
| Lowest | 73.5 | 2005 |
| Average since 2015 | 108.59 | 2015–2024 |
| First recorded | 73.5 | 2005 |
Over five years it is up 8.19% from 108.7 in 2019 (1.59% a year on average, compounded). Since 2005 it is up 60% from 73.5 in 2005 (2.5% a year on average, compounded).
In 2024, World's export volume index (2015 = 100) rose 3.7 on 2023 (from 113.9 to 117.6).
Across the 18 yearly changes before that (2006 to 2023), the average change was +2.24 and a typical year strayed about 4.71 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.3 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.
On record, the biggest yearly rise was 10.6 in 2010 and the biggest yearly fall was 10.1 in 2009. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.
From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is upward, about 1.76 a year. A straight line explains 82% of the movement over 10 observed years.
Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.
Extending that straight line gives about 122 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.87, against 2.57 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.
See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.
Export volume indexes are derived from UNCTAD's volume index series and are the ratio of the export value indexes to the corresponding unit value indexes. Unit value indexes are based on data reported by countries that demonstrate consistency under UNCTAD quality controls, supplemented by UNCTAD's estimates using the previous year's trade values at the Standard International Trade Classification three-digit level as weights.
| Year | Export volume index (2015 = 100) |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 117.6 |
| 2023 | 113.9 |
| 2022 | 113.7 |
| 2021 | 112.5 |
| 2020 | 103.3 |
| 2019 | 108.7 |
| 2018 | 109 |
| 2017 | 105.8 |
| 2016 | 101.4 |
| 2015 | 100 |
| 2014 | 98.5 |
| 2013 | 96.6 |
| 2012 | 94.4 |
| 2011 | 92.1 |
| 2010 | 87.4 |
| 2009 | 76.8 |
| 2008 | 86.9 |
| 2007 | 84.8 |
| 2006 | 79.8 |
| 2005 | 73.5 |
Every indicator for World is on the World data page.
World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator TX.QTY.MRCH.XD.WD, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.
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