World: CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, World's CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high) fell 0.03 on 2024 (from 3.7 to 3.67).

Across the 19 yearly changes before that (2006 to 2024), the average change was −0.00291 and a typical year strayed about 0.03 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.0 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 0.06 in 2009 and the biggest yearly fall was 0.04 in 2015. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.01 a year. A straight line explains 86% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 3.66 for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.01, against 0.03 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

What this measures

Trade assesses how the policy framework fosters trade in goods.

Limitations: The CPIA exercise is intended to capture the quality of a country's policies and institutional arrangements, focusing on key elements that are within the country's control, rather than on outcomes (such as economic growth rates) that are influenced by events beyond the country's control. More specifically, the CPIA measures the extent to which a country's policy and institutional framework supports sustainable growth and poverty reduction and, consequently, the effective use of development assistance.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a unweighted average.

All 21 values

CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high) in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 3 (2025)
• Djibouti — 3.5 (2025)
• Pakistan — 4 (2025)
• Yemen, Rep. — 2.5 (2025)

More public sector data for World

• Arms imports (SIPRI trend indicator values) — 33.33 billion (2025)
• Military expenditure (% of GDP) — 2.48% (2025)
• Arms exports (SIPRI trend indicator values) — 33.54 billion (2025)
• Military expenditure (current USD) — 2.86 trillion (2025)
• Intentional homicides, female (per 100,000 female) — 2.1 (2023)
• Intentional homicides, male (per 100,000 male) — 8.3 (2023)
• Armed forces personnel, total — 27.41 million (2020)
• Armed forces personnel (% of total labor force) — 0.79% (2020)
• Revenue, excluding grants (% of GDP) — 24% (2024)
• Expense (% of GDP)

Reading data like this

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Questions people ask

What is World's CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high)?

3.67 in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2005?

It is down 2.22% from 3.76 in 2005 (0.11% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 3.86 in 2009 and the lowest 3.67 in 2025.

Is the latest change in CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high) unusual for World?

In 2025, World's CPIA trade rating (1=low to 6=high) fell 0.03 on 2024 (from 3.7 to 3.67). Across the 19 yearly changes before that (2006 to 2024), the average change was −0.00291 and a typical year strayed about 0.03 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.0 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator IQ.CPA.TRAD.XQ, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: CPIA database, World Bank Group (WBG), uri: http://www.worldbank.org/ida Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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