Health · Timor-Leste
Yearly data from 1990 to 2024, from the World Bank.
Timor-Leste's probability of dying among adolescents ages 10-14 years (per 1,000) was 3.8 in 2024, the latest year in the World Bank's World Development Indicators. That is down 15.56% from 4.5 in 2014 (1.68% a year on average, compounded).
| Value | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest | 3.8 | 2024 |
| Five years earlier | 4.2 | 2019 |
| Ten years earlier | 4.5 | 2014 |
| Highest | 20.1 | 1999 |
| Lowest | 3.8 | 2024 |
| Average since 2015 | 4.13 | 2015–2024 |
| First recorded | 17 | 1990 |
Over five years it is down 9.52% from 4.2 in 2019 (1.98% a year on average, compounded). Since 1990 it is down 77.65% from 17 in 1990 (4.31% a year on average, compounded).
In 2024, Timor-Leste's probability of dying among adolescents ages 10-14 years (per 1,000) fell 0.1 on 2023 (from 3.9 to 3.8).
Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was −0.39 and a typical year strayed about 2.59 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.1 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.
On record, the biggest yearly rise was 4.4 in 1999 and the biggest yearly fall was 13.3 in 2000. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.
From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.08 a year. A straight line explains 98% of the movement over 10 observed years.
Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.
Extending that straight line gives about 3.58 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.04, against 0.13 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.
See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.
In 2024, Timor-Leste had the 38th highest value of the 196 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.
| Value | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Timor-Leste | 3.8 | 2024 |
| World | 2.7 | 2024 |
| East Asia & Pacific | 1.3 | 2024 |
| Lower middle income | 3.2 | 2024 |
Probability of dying between age 10-14 years of age expressed per 1,000 adolescents age 10, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the specified year.
Limitations: Complete vital registration systems are fairly uncommon in developing countries. Thus estimates must be obtained from sample surveys or derived by applying indirect estimation techniques to registration, census, or survey data. Survey data are subject to recall error, and surveys estimating infant/child deaths require large samples because households in which a birth has occurred during a given year cannot ordinarily be preselected for sampling. Indirect estimates rely on model life tables that may be inappropriate for the population concerned. Extrapolations based on outdated surveys may not be reliable for monitoring changes in health status or for comparative analytical work.
Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.
| Year | Probability of dying among adolescents ages 10-14 years (per 1,000) |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.8 |
| 2023 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | 4 |
| 2020 | 4.1 |
| 2019 | 4.2 |
| 2018 | 4.2 |
| 2017 | 4.3 |
| 2016 | 4.4 |
| 2015 | 4.5 |
| 2014 | 4.5 |
| 2013 | 4.6 |
| 2012 | 4.7 |
| 2011 | 4.9 |
| 2010 | 5 |
| 2009 | 5.1 |
| 2008 | 5.3 |
| 2007 | 5.5 |
| 2006 | 5.6 |
| 2005 | 5.8 |
| 2004 | 6 |
| 2003 | 6.2 |
| 2002 | 6.4 |
| 2001 | 6.6 |
| 2000 | 6.8 |
| 1999 | 20.1 |
| 1998 | 15.7 |
| 1997 | 14.8 |
| 1996 | 15.4 |
| 1995 | 16 |
| 1994 | 15.1 |
| 1993 | 15.6 |
| 1992 | 16.5 |
| 1991 | 17.4 |
| 1990 | 17 |
Every indicator for Timor-Leste is on the Timor-Leste data page.
World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SH.DYN.1014, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), uri: www.childmortality.org; World Health Organization (WHO), uri: www.childmortality.org, note: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation; World Bank (WB), uri: www.childmortality.org, note: UN Inter-agenc… Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.
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