Tajikistan: Urban population

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, Tajikistan's urban population rose 1.8% on 2024 (from 2.77 million to 2.82 million).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1995 to 2024), the average change was +1.7% and a typical year strayed about 1.1% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.1 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 5.1% in 1962 and the biggest yearly fall was 1.1% in 1993. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is upward, about 54,801 a year. A straight line explains 100% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 2.99 million for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 3,080, against 104,656 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2025, Tajikistan had the 127th highest value of the 217 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Tajikistan in the 2025 ranking

• Puerto Rico (US) — 124th of 217: 3 million
• Qatar — 125th of 217: 2.95 million
• Slovak Republic — 126th of 217: 2.88 million
• South Sudan — 128th of 217: 2.64 million
• Kyrgyz Republic — 129th of 217: 2.55 million
• Mongolia — 130th of 217: 2.54 million

What this measures

Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects. Aggregation of urban and rural population may not add up to total population because of different country coverages.

Limitations: Aggregation of urban and rural population may not add up to total population because of different country coverage. Most countries use an urban classification related to the size or characteristics of settlements. Some define urban areas based on the presence of certain infrastructure and services. And other countries designate urban areas based on administrative arrangements. Because of national differences in the characteristics that distinguish urban from rural areas, the distinction between urban and rural population is not amenable to a single definition that would be applicable to all countries.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a sum.

All 66 values

Urban population in nearby economies

• Albania — 1.38 million (2025)
• Andorra — 73,743 (2025)
• Armenia — 2.04 million (2025)
• Austria — 6.42 million (2025)
• Azerbaijan — 6.01 million (2025)
• Belarus — 7.22 million (2025)
• Belgium — 10.47 million (2025)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina — 1.65 million (2025)
• Bulgaria — 4.77 million (2025)
• Channel Islands — 54,993 (2025)
• Croatia — 2.24 million (2025)
• Cyprus — 914,225 (2025)

More environment data for Tajikistan

• Population in largest city — 1.04 million (2025)
• Population in the largest city (% of urban population) — 36.85% (2025)
• Rural population — 7.96 million (2025)
• Rural population (% of total population) — 73.84% (2025)
• Urban population (% of total population) — 26.16% (2025)
• Rural population growth (annual %) — 1.85% (2025)
• Urban population growth (annual %) — 1.78% (2025)
• Agricultural land (sq. km) — 38,875 (2024)
• Surface area (sq. km) — 141,379 (2024)
• Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Tajikistan's urban population?

2.82 million in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1960?

It is up 300.13% from 705,350 in 1960 (2.16% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 2.82 million in 2025 and the lowest 705,350 in 1960.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SP.URB.TOTL, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: World Urbanization Prospects, United Nations (UN), uri: https://population.un.org/wup/, note: World Bank staff estimates based on the United Nations Population Division's World Urbanization Prospects, National definitions, publisher: UN Population Division; Staff estimates, World Bank (WB), note: Wo… Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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