Rwanda: Risk of impoverishing expenditure for surgical care (% of people at risk)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2022, Rwanda's risk of impoverishing expenditure for surgical care (% of people at risk) fell 3.5 percentage points on 2021 (from 78.5% to 75%).

Across the 16 yearly changes before that (2006 to 2021), the average change was −0.91 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 1.44 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.8 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 1.7 percentage points in 2008 and the biggest yearly fall was 3.7 percentage points in 2015. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2013 to 2022 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.9 percentage points a year. A straight line explains 82% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 73.92% for 2025. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2020 to 2022 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 1.55%, against 2% for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2022, Rwanda had the 12th highest value of the 109 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Rwanda in the 2022 ranking

• Burkina Faso — 9th of 109: 82.2%
• Tajikistan — 10th of 109: 81.5%
• Guinea-Bissau — 11th of 109: 81.3%
• Sudan — 13th of 109: 74.5%
• Gambia, The — 14th of 109: 73.6%
• Togo — 15th of 109: 73%

What this measures

The proportion of population at risk of impoverishing expenditure when surgical care is required. Impoverishing expenditure is defined as direct out of pocket payments for surgical and anaesthesia care which drive people below a poverty threshold (using a threshold of $2.15 PPP/day).

Limitations: Prior to 2015, global data on surgery, anesthesia and obstetric care was virtually nonexistent. With the idea that “We can’t manage what we don’t measure”, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery developed six Surgical, Obstetric and Anesthesia (SAO) indicators and collected data for them. The analysis of these data show large gaps in SAO care across countries by income groups.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 18 values

Risk of impoverishing expenditure for surgical care (% of people at risk) in nearby economies

• Angola — 54.2% (2022)
• Benin — 63.9% (2019)
• Botswana — 37.5% (2022)
• Burkina Faso — 82.2% (2022)
• Burundi — 100% (2022)
• Cabo Verde — 28% (2022)
• Cameroon — 50.5% (2022)
• Comoros — 45.8% (2022)
• Congo, Dem. Rep.

More health data for Rwanda

• Population ages 00-04, female (% of female population) — 12.69% (2025)
• Population ages 00-04, male (% of male population) — 13.58% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female — 2.68 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female (% of female population) — 35.95% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male — 2.71 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male (% of male population) — 38.14% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, total — 5.39 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) — 37.02% (2025)
• Population ages 05-09, female (% of female population) — 12.07% (2025)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Rwanda's risk of impoverishing expenditure for surgical care (% of people at risk)?

75% in 2022, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2005?

It is down 18.1 percentage points from 93.1% in 2005. The highest value was 93.1% in 2005 and the lowest 75% in 2022.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SH.SGR.IRSK.ZS, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Program in Global Surgery and Social Change (PGSSC), Harvard Medical School, uri: https://www.pgssc.org/ Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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