Lower middle income: Military expenditure (current USD)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, Lower middle income's military expenditure (current USD) rose 5.7% on 2024 (from 126.45 billion to 133.67 billion).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1995 to 2024), the average change was +6.6% and a typical year strayed about 11.7% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.1 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 52% in 1962 and the biggest yearly fall was 39% in 2006. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is upward, about 3.67 billion a year. A straight line explains 95% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 143.16 billion for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 2.34 billion, against 5.59 billion for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

Military spending USD, in current prices (converted at the exchange rate for the given year)

Limitations: SIPRI strives to compile reliable, consistent military expenditure data by assessing multiple sources, but accuracy depends on the quality and transparency of those sources. Challenges arise from two key issues: whether reported figures reflect actual spending and how closely they match SIPRI’s definition. While data is generally accurate in developed and many developing countries, weak governance, corruption, and secret transfers in others can lead to major discrepancies. SIPRI sometimes makes estimates, when sources conflict or lack coverage, introducing uncertainty, especially for countries like China or the UAE.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 66 values

Military expenditure (current USD) in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 278.25 million (2021)
• Algeria — 25.44 billion (2025)
• Bahrain — 1.47 billion (2025)
• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 2.5 billion (2025)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 7.4 billion (2025)
• Iraq — 6.45 billion (2025)
• Israel — 48.28 billion (2025)
• Jordan — 2.56 billion (2025)
• Kuwait — 8.09 billion (2025)
• Lebanon — 828.3 million (2025)
• Libya

More public sector data for Lower middle income

• Arms imports (SIPRI trend indicator values) — 5.14 billion (2025)
• Military expenditure (% of GDP) — 1.92% (2025)
• Armed forces personnel, total — 7.56 million (2020)
• Military expenditure (% of general government expenditure) — 8.07% (2025)
• Battle-related deaths (number of people) — 10,767 (2024)
• Armed forces personnel (% of total labor force) — 0.72% (2020)
• CPIA business regulatory environment rating (1=low to 6=high) — 3.14 (2025)
• CPIA debt policy rating (1=low to 6=high) — 3.31 (2025)
• CPIA economic management cluster average (1=low to 6=high)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Lower middle income's military expenditure (current USD)?

133.67 billion in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1960?

It is up 9,843% from 1.34 billion in 1960 (7.33% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 133.67 billion in 2025 and the lowest 1.32 billion in 1961.

Is the latest change in military expenditure (current USD) unusual for Lower middle income?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator MS.MIL.XPND.CD, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), uri: https://www.sipri.org/databases Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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