Lower middle income: Cereal yield (kg per hectare)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2024, Lower middle income's cereal yield (kg per hectare) rose 115.3 on 2023 (from 3,251 to 3,366).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was +43.85 and a typical year strayed about 53.49 from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.3 standard deviations above that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 159.22 in 1988 and the biggest yearly fall was 103.03 in 2002. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is upward, about 62.93 a year. A straight line explains 98% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 3,479 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 62.67, against 82.74 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

Cereal yield, measured as kilograms per hectare of harvested land, includes wheat, rice, maize, barley, oats, rye, millet, sorghum, buckwheat, and mixed grains. Production data on cereals relate to crops harvested for dry grain only. Cereal crops harvested for hay or harvested green for food, feed, or silage and those used for grazing are excluded. The FAO allocates production data to the calendar year in which the bulk of the harvest took place. Most of a crop harvested near the end of a year will be used in the following year.

Limitations: Cereals production data relate to crops harvested for dry grain only. Cereal crops harvested for hay or harvested green for food, feed, or silage and those used for grazing are excluded. The FAO allocates production data to the calendar year in which the bulk of the harvest took place. Most of a crop harvested near the end of a year will be used in the following year. The data are collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) through annual questionnaires. The FAO tries to impose standard definitions and reporting methods, but complete consistency across countries and over time is not possible.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 64 values

Cereal yield (kg per hectare) in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 2,359 (2024)
• Algeria — 1,537 (2024)
• Djibouti — 2,041 (2024)
• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 7,360 (2024)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 2,725 (2024)
• Iraq — 2,651 (2024)
• Israel — 2,619 (2024)
• Jordan — 1,611 (2024)
• Kuwait — 14,196 (2024)
• Lebanon — 2,661 (2024)
• Libya — 659.7 (2024)
• Malta

More environment data for Lower middle income

• Population in the largest city (% of urban population) — 17.31% (2025)
• Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total population) — 18.01% (2025)
• Rural population — 1.71 billion (2025)
• Rural population (% of total population) — 57.99% (2025)
• Urban population — 1.24 billion (2025)
• Urban population (% of total population) — 42.01% (2025)
• Aquaculture production (metric tons) — 19.78 million (2024)
• Capture fisheries production (metric tons) — 19.67 million (2024)
• Total fisheries production (metric tons)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
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• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Lower middle income's cereal yield (kg per hectare)?

3,366 in 2024, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1961?

It is up 236.58% from 1,000 in 1961 (1.95% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 3,366 in 2024 and the lowest 939.05 in 1966.

Is the latest change in cereal yield (kg per hectare) unusual for Lower middle income?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator AG.YLD.CREL.KG, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: FAO electronic files and web site, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), uri: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL, publisher: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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