Italy's adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV was 3,500 in 2024, the latest year in the World Bank's World Development Indicators. That is down 12.5% from 4,000 in 2014 (1.33% a year on average, compounded).
Key figures
| Value | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest | 3,500 | 2024 |
| Five years earlier | 3,700 | 2019 |
| Ten years earlier | 4,000 | 2014 |
| Highest | 4,300 | 1992 |
| Lowest | 3,500 | 2023 |
| Average since 2015 | 3,700 | 2015–2024 |
| First recorded | 4,200 | 1990 |
What the numbers say
In 2024, Italy's adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV did not change 0% on 2023 (from 3,500 to 3,500).
Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was −0.7% and a typical year strayed about 1.1% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.6 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.
On record, the biggest yearly rise was 2.4% in 1992 and the biggest yearly fall was 2.8% in 2023. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.
From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is downward, about 48.48 a year. A straight line explains 97% of the movement over 10 observed years.
Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.
A straight-line projection, tested first
Extending that straight line gives about 3,334 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 20.3, against 66.67 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.
See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.
How it compares
In 2024, Italy had the 35th highest value of the 132 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.
| Value | Year | |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 3,500 | 2024 |
| World | 1.1 million | 2024 |
Closest to Italy in the 2024 ranking
What this measures
Number of adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV.
All 35 values
| Year | Adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3,500 |
| 2023 | 3,500 |
| 2022 | 3,600 |
| 2021 | 3,600 |
| 2020 | 3,700 |
| 2019 | 3,700 |
| 2018 | 3,800 |
| 2017 | 3,800 |
| 2016 | 3,900 |
| 2015 | 3,900 |
| 2014 |
Adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV in nearby economies
More health data for Italy
- Population ages 00-04, female (% of female population) — 3.21% (2025)
- Population ages 00-04, male (% of male population) — 3.55% (2025)
- Population ages 0-14, female — 3.34 million (2025)
- Population ages 0-14, female (% of female population) — 11.08% (2025)
- Population ages 0-14, male — 3.53 million (2025)
- Population ages 0-14, male (% of male population) — 12.26% (2025)
- Population ages 0-14, total — 6.87 million (2025)
- Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) — 11.66% (2025)
- Population ages 05-09, female (% of female population) — 3.67% (2025)
- Population ages 05-09, male (% of male population)
Reading data like this
Questions people ask
- What is Italy's adults (ages 15-49) newly infected with HIV?
- 3,500 in 2024, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).
- How has it changed since 1990?
- It is down 16.67% from 4,200 in 1990 (0.53% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 4,300 in 1992 and the lowest 3,500 in 2023.
- How does Italy rank?
Source
World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SH.HIV.INCD, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: UNAIDS estimates, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), uri: https://aidsinfo.unaids.org/, publisher: UNAIDS, date accessed: 2025-08-27, date published: 2025-07 Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.
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