IBRD only: Asylum-seekers by country or territory of origin

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2025, IBRD only's asylum-seekers by country or territory of origin fell 17.5% on 2024 (from 3.97 million to 3.28 million).

Across the 24 yearly changes before that (2001 to 2024), the average change was +11.4% and a typical year strayed about 25% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.2 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 66.2% in 2015 and the biggest yearly fall was 24.3% in 2004. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2016 to 2025 the straight-line trend is upward, about 306,304 a year. A straight line explains 92% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 4.7 million for 2028. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2023 to 2025 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 440,772, against 692,864 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

Asylum-seekers are individuals who have sought international protection and whose claims for refugee status have not yet been determined. This includes those who are in various stages of the asylum process, such as initial application, appeal, or awaiting final decision. In specific contexts, asylum-seekers may also include those who are seeking protection under complementary forms of protection, and those enjoying temporary protection, but whose claims are still under consideration.

Limitations: Variability in national asylum procedures and processing times can lead to inconsistencies in data reporting, affecting the accuracy of cross-country comparisons. Unregistered asylum claims or informal border crossings may result in incomplete data, underestimating the true scope of the need for protection. Additionally, the changing status of individuals, such as those asylum-seekers that are recognized as refugees, complicates the tracking and categorization of data.

All 26 values

Asylum-seekers by country or territory of origin in nearby economies

• Afghanistan — 270,007 (2025)
• Algeria — 12,949 (2025)
• Bahrain — 130 (2025)
• Djibouti — 1,419 (2025)
• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 46,292 (2025)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 49,263 (2025)
• Iraq — 96,887 (2025)
• Israel — 897 (2025)
• Jordan — 10,735 (2025)
• Kuwait

More social protection & labor data for IBRD only

• Net migration — -632,917 (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of asylum — 8.3 million (2025)
• Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin — 7.2 million (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, female (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 29.25% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, male (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 47.09% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate for ages 15-24, total (%) (modeled ILO estimate) — 38.55% (2025)
• Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15-64) (modeled ILO estimate) — 52.37% (2025)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is IBRD only's asylum-seekers by country or territory of origin?

3.28 million in 2025, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 2000?

It is up 541.52% from 510,566 in 2000 (7.72% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 3.97 million in 2024 and the lowest 183,626 in 2011.

Is the latest change in asylum-seekers by country or territory of origin unusual for IBRD only?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SM.POP.ASYS.EO, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Refugee Population Statistics Database, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), uri: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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