Gambia, The: Adults (ages 15+) and children (ages 0-14) newly infected with HIV

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2024, Gambia, The's adults (ages 15+) and children (ages 0-14) newly infected with HIV fell 8.3% on 2023 (from 1,200 to 1,100).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was +1.1% and a typical year strayed about 9% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 1.0 standard deviations below that average, so it was larger than a typical year, though not out of the range seen before.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 42.3% in 1992 and the biggest yearly fall was 10.5% in 2017. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is downward, about 89.7 a year. A straight line explains 98% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 832.05 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 31.82, against 200 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2024, Gambia, The had the 71st highest value of the 138 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Gambia, The in the 2024 ranking

• Niger — 69th of 138: 1,200
• Paraguay — 70th of 138: 1,200
• Costa Rica — 71st of 138: 1,100
• Jamaica — 73rd of 138: 1,100
• Morocco — 74th of 138: 990
• El Salvador — 75th of 138: 940

What this measures

Number of adults (ages 15+) and children (ages 0-14) newly infected with HIV.

All 35 values

Adults (ages 15+) and children (ages 0-14) newly infected with HIV in nearby economies

• Angola — 21,000 (2024)
• Benin — 1,400 (2024)
• Botswana — 4,200 (2024)
• Burkina Faso — 3,000 (2024)
• Burundi — 1,400 (2024)
• Cabo Verde — 500 (2024)
• Cameroon — 13,000 (2024)
• Central African Republic — 4,000 (2024)
• Chad

More health data for Gambia, The

• Population ages 00-04, female (% of female population) — 13.67% (2025)
• Population ages 00-04, male (% of male population) — 14.1% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female — 554,785 (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, female (% of female population) — 39.16% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male — 566,242 (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, male (% of male population) — 40.29% (2025)
• Population ages 0-14, total — 1.12 million (2025)
• Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) — 39.72% (2025)
• Population ages 05-09, female (% of female population) — 12.88% (2025)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Gambia, The's adults (ages 15+) and children (ages 0-14) newly infected with HIV?

1,100 in 2024, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1990?

It is up 120% from 500 in 1990 (2.35% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 2,500 in 2002 and the lowest 500 in 1990.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SH.HIV.INCD.TL, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: UNAIDS estimates, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), uri: https://aidsinfo.unaids.org/, publisher: UNAIDS, date accessed: 2025-08-27, date published: 2025-07 Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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