Europe & Central Asia: Prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2024, Europe & Central Asia's prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day) did not change 0% on 2023 (from 1.3 to 1.3).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1994 to 2023), the average change was −3% and a typical year strayed about 5.6% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.5 standard deviations above that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 11.4% in 1999 and the biggest yearly fall was 21.7% in 2013. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2015 to 2024 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.06 a year. A straight line explains 96% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 1.17 for 2027. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2022 to 2024 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.04, against 0.17 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

The average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28 per day (adjusted for differences in purchasing power parity across countries). It is measured as the average factor by which incomes fall short of $28.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a population-weighted average.

All 37 values

Prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day) in nearby economies

• Egypt, Arab Rep. — 3.9 (2021)
• Iran, Islamic Rep. — 3.3 (2023)
• Israel — 1.2 (2022)
• Malta — 0.7 (2023)
• Pakistan — 7.2 (2024)

More poverty data for Europe & Central Asia

• Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population) — 0.6% (2024)
• Poverty gap at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (%) — 0.3% (2024)
• Poverty headcount ratio at $4.20 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population) — 1.1% (2024)
• Poverty gap at $4.20 a day (2021 PPP) (%) — 0.4% (2024)
• Poverty headcount ratio at societal poverty line (% of population) — 14.2% (2024)
• Poverty headcount ratio at $8.30 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population) — 4.8% (2024)
• Poverty gap at $8.30 a day (2021 PPP) (%) — 1.6% (2024)

Every indicator for Europe & Central Asia is on the Europe & Central Asia data page.

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Europe & Central Asia's prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day)?

1.3 in 2024, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1988?

It is down 51.85% from 2.7 in 1988 (2.01% a year on average, compounded). The highest value was 3.9 in 1999 and the lowest 1.3 in 2023.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SI.SPR.PGAP, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: World Bank, Poverty and Inequality Platform. Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World Bank country departments. Data for high-income economies are mostly from the Luxembourg Income Study database. Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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