Ethiopia: Over-age students, primary (% of enrollment)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2015, Ethiopia's over-age students, primary (% of enrollment) fell 1.25 percentage points on 2014 (from 13.38% to 12.12%).

Across the 18 yearly changes before that (1988 to 2014), the average change was −0.81 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 1.75 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.3 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 1.9 percentage points in 2001 and the biggest yearly fall was 4.73 percentage points in 1999. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2006 to 2015 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.99 percentage points a year. A straight line explains 94% of the movement over 9 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 9.96% for 2018. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2012 to 2015 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 1.35%, against 3.66% for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

Closest to Ethiopia in the 2015 ranking

• Vanuatu — 1st of 4: 25.79%
• Equatorial Guinea — 2nd of 4: 22.58%
• Tonga — 4th of 4: 0.9%

What this measures

Over-age students are the percentage of those enrolled who are older than the official school-age range for primary education.

All 23 values

Over-age students, primary (% of enrollment) in nearby economies

• Benin — 7.87% (2018)
• Burkina Faso — 15.78% (2018)
• Burundi — 17.06% (2018)
• Cabo Verde — 10.2% (2018)
• Cameroon — 12% (2017)
• Chad — 13.89% (2016)
• Côte d'Ivoire — 7.98% (2018)
• Equatorial Guinea — 22.58% (2015)
• Eritrea — 24.69% (2018)
• Eswatini — 28.27% (2017)

More education data for Ethiopia

• Primary school starting age (years) — 7 (2025)
• Primary education, duration (years) — 6 (2025)
• Lower secondary school starting age (years) — 13 (2025)
• Secondary education, duration (years) — 6 (2025)
• School enrollment, primary (gross), gender parity index (GPI) — 0.91 (2021)
• Primary education, pupils — 15.93 million (2024)
• School enrollment, primary (% gross) — 84.42% (2024)
• School enrollment, primary, female (% gross) — 81.41% (2024)
• School enrollment, primary, male (% gross) — 87.32% (2024)
• Primary education, pupils (% female)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Ethiopia's over-age students, primary (% of enrollment)?

12.12% in 2015, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1987?

It is down 12.56 percentage points from 24.68% in 1987. The highest value was 31.68% in 1998 and the lowest 12.12% in 2015.

Is the latest change in over-age students, primary (% of enrollment) unusual for Ethiopia?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SE.PRM.OENR.ZS, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: Stat Bulk Data Download Service, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), uri: https://uis.unesco.org/bdds, publisher: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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