Cuba: Merchandise trade (% of GDP)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2020, Cuba's merchandise trade (% of GDP) fell 3.25 percentage points on 2019 (from 11.57% to 8.32%).

Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1990 to 2019), the average change was −1.2 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 5.12 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.4 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 14.47 percentage points in 1974 and the biggest yearly fall was 13.8 percentage points in 1990. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2011 to 2020 the straight-line trend is downward, about 2.39 percentage points a year. A straight line explains 94% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 3.92% for 2023. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2018 to 2020 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.87%, against 2.32% for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

See how every economy compares in the full ranking.

What this measures

General merchandise trade includes goods whose economic ownership is changed between a resident and a non-resident and that are not included in the following specific categories: goods under merchanting, non-monetary gold, and parts of travel, construction, and government goods and services n.i.e. It is the total of merchandise exports plus merchandise imports. This indicator is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the total income earned through the production of goods and services in an economic territory during an accounting period.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a weighted average.

All 51 values

Merchandise trade (% of GDP) in nearby economies

• Antigua and Barbuda — 41.49% (2025)
• Argentina — 23.85% (2025)
• Aruba — 39.66% (2024)
• Bahamas, The — 35.58% (2024)
• Barbados — 33.14% (2025)
• Belize — 56.37% (2025)
• Bolivia — 30.46% (2025)
• Brazil — 28.16% (2025)
• Cayman Islands — 26.44% (2024)
• Chile — 55.87% (2025)
• Colombia — 26.36% (2025)

More private sector & trade data for Cuba

• Merchandise imports (current US$) — US$8.75 billion (2025)
• Merchandise exports (current US$) — US$1.62 billion (2025)
• Merchandise imports from economies in the Arab World (% of total merchandise imports) — 1.31% (2023)
• Merchandise imports from high-income economies (% of total merchandise imports) — 52.19% (2023)
• Merchandise imports from low- and middle-income economies outside region (% of total merchandise imports) — 29.78% (2023)
• Merchandise imports from low- and middle-income economies in East Asia & Pacific (% of total merchandise imports) — 23.31% (2023)
• Merchandise imports from low- and middle-income economies in Latin America & the Caribbean (% of total merchandise imports)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Cuba's merchandise trade (% of GDP)?

8.32% in 2020, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1970?

It is down 33.08 percentage points from 41.4% in 1970. The highest value was 63.86% in 1986 and the lowest 8.32% in 2020.

Is the latest change in merchandise trade (% of GDP) unusual for Cuba?

In 2020, Cuba's merchandise trade (% of GDP) fell 3.25 percentage points on 2019 (from 11.57% to 8.32%). Across the 30 yearly changes before that (1990 to 2019), the average change was −1.2 percentage points and a typical year strayed about 5.12 percentage points from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.4 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: World Trade Organization (WTO); World Bank GDP estimates, World Bank (WB); World Development Indicators, World Bank (WB) Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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