Bulgaria: Prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day)

Key figures

What the numbers say

In 2023, Bulgaria's prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day) fell 6.7% on 2022 (from 1.5 to 1.4).

Across the 17 yearly changes before that (1995 to 2022), the average change was −3.6% and a typical year strayed about 18.2% from that (the standard deviation). This year's change was 0.2 standard deviations below that average, so it was an ordinary year: it sits within the range of normal year-to-year movement.

On record, the biggest yearly rise was 33.3% in 1995 and the biggest yearly fall was 45.1% in 2007. The numbers show how large and when, not why; for the cause, look at what happened in that country in those years.

From 2014 to 2023 the straight-line trend is downward, about 0.16 a year. A straight line explains 83% of the movement over 10 observed years.

Worked out from the yearly values above. How the checks work: standard deviation, z-scores and straight-line trends.

A straight-line projection, tested first

Extending that straight line gives about 0.86 for 2026. We show this only because the same method, fitted on earlier years, predicted 2021 to 2023 better than "no change" would have: its average miss was 0.02, against 0.07 for assuming no change. Treat it as a continuation of the recent pattern, not a forecast of events: it cannot see a recession, a policy change or a revision to the data.

See how a linear trend forecast works and the guide on forecasting without fooling yourself.

How it compares

In 2023, Bulgaria had the 8th highest value of the 33 economies reporting that year. Higher is not always better: for some indicators the lowest value is the one to aim for. See the full ranking.

Closest to Bulgaria in the 2023 ranking

• Serbia — 5th of 33: 2
• Lithuania — 6th of 33: 1.6
• Slovak Republic — 7th of 33: 1.5
• Italy — 9th of 33: 1.4
• Greece — 10th of 33: 1.3
• Latvia — 11th of 33: 1.3

What this measures

The average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28 per day (adjusted for differences in purchasing power parity across countries). It is measured as the average factor by which incomes fall short of $28.

Regional and income-group figures are computed by the World Bank as a population-weighted average.

All 25 values

Prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day) in nearby economies

• Albania — 2.5 (2020)
• Armenia — 3.6 (2024)
• Austria — 0.8 (2023)
• Belarus — 1.6 (2020)
• Belgium — 0.5 (2023)
• Croatia — 1.1 (2023)
• Cyprus — 0.6 (2023)
• Czechia — 0.8 (2023)
• Denmark

More poverty data for Bulgaria

• Income share held by second 20% — 11.3% (2023)
• Income share held by third 20% — 15.4% (2023)
• Income share held by fourth 20% — 21.2% (2023)
• Income share held by highest 20% — 46.2% (2023)
• Income share held by highest 10% — 31.1% (2023)
• Proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income (%) — 14.6% (2023)
• Income share held by lowest 10% — 2.1% (2023)
• Income share held by lowest 20% — 6% (2023)
• Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population) — 1% (2023)
• Poverty gap at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (%)

Reading data like this

• Where to find free public data, and how to check it before you trust it — 2 min read
• Data analysis examples: 6 worked from one dataset — 3 min read
• Real change or random noise? A plain guide to reading your numbers — 2 min read

Questions people ask

What is Bulgaria's prosperity gap (average shortfall from a prosperity standard of $28/day)?

1.4 in 2023, according to the World Bank (World Development Indicators).

How has it changed since 1989?

Source

World Bank, World Development Indicators, indicator SI.SPR.PGAP, licensed CC BY 4.0. Original source: World Bank, Poverty and Inequality Platform. Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World Bank country departments. Data for high-income economies are mostly from the Luxembourg Income Study database. Figures are fetched from the World Bank API and refreshed monthly; see the series on data.worldbank.org. The full definition and method are in the World Bank's metadata glossary. Comparisons use the same World Bank release.

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